HighPots meets Oxford: Measurable research results through our data analytics

At the beginning of the analysis, the HighPots team faced an impressive list of challenges:

• Analyzing millions of raw data sets of different formats from 414 societies, 30 religions over a period of 10,000 years.
• Determining the uniqueness of religion according to the definitions of historians and anthropologists.
• Recognizing when a “simple” society transforms into a complex and “civilized” society, despite determining concrete parameters including tolerance values.
• Determining which criteria play a role for strong/weak dependencies and to what extent a religion can even influence societal complexity.
• And finally, in the initial phase of the project, the assessment of data quality and data accuracy

Another hurdle was Brexit, which required acceleration of the project. We addressed this challenge by changing an investigation method, adding more personnel, and using AI.

The university chose HighPots because we were able to provide proof of performance and the successful completion of similar projects, for example for the Lab for Information and Decision Systems based at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

Using combined data mining and data analytics methods, we identified relevant data sources together with the scientists, which the university had painstakingly compiled over decades through elaborate scanning processes.

Many religions were excluded because they were not drastically different from each other, were too close in time or geography, or because the data volumes were insufficient.

Ultimately, out of over 400 religions, 30 remained. The situation was similar with societies. In the end, 414 societies out of over 4,000 remained. The prerequisite for the analysis is that complex civilizations also develop from simple societies; for this, a society must exist for many hundreds of years.

• Analyzing millions of raw data sets of different formats from 414 societies, 30 religions over a period of 10,000 years.
• Determining the uniqueness of religion according to the definitions of historians and anthropologists.
• Recognizing when a “simple” society transforms into a complex and “civilized” society, despite determining concrete parameters including tolerance values.
• Determining which criteria play a role for strong/weak dependencies and to what extent a religion can even influence societal complexity.
• And finally, in the initial project phase, the assessment of data quality and data truth

Another hurdle was Brexit, which demanded an acceleration of the project. We addressed this task by changing an investigation method, increasing the use of machine learning, and adding more personnel.

After completing the analysis, the following results were obtained:

• The majority of all societies created powerful gods beyond a certain level of complexity.
• The first deities and supernatural entities responsible for ethics and morality emerged around 2850 BC.
• Complex social relationships grew 5x faster in societies without religion than in societies with religion.

Religions supported the formation of civilizations especially in the early times when societies were emerging. From a certain point, a level of achieved civilization (complexity stage), religions hinder further civilizational development, making it difficult for these societies to continue developing.
It is assumed that the rules of religions (e.g., the “10 Commandments” in Christianity) initially enable the formation of a society, but later in social development they hinder enlightenment.

The complete data is now publicly available in the Seshat data room.
The complete results have been published in Nature.

🡶 We can learn from the results that complex societies can develop even when humans are left to their own devices with their selfish behavior – that is, without knowledge of a moral supernatural entity.

🡶 However, this is the case in very few situations; the development of many complex societies shows belief in gods or supernatural beings. This can possibly be explained psychologically. Most readers know the feeling when they have successfully taken advantage of someone else legally. At first, there is a moment of joy, but shortly afterwards, the guilty conscience appears. This guilty conscience arises because there might be a supernatural being (e.g. karma) that cannot be deceived; a being that can punish during life or after death.