Challenges
The HighPots team faced an impressive list of challenges at the start of the analysis:
- Analyzing millions of raw data records of different formats from 414 societies, 30 religions over a period of 10,000 years.
- Determining the uniqueness of religion according to the definitions of historians and anthropologists.
- Recognizing when a “simple” society transforms into a complex and “civilized” society, despite determining specific parameters including tolerance values.
- Determining which criteria play a role for strong/weak dependencies and to what extent a religion can even influence societal complexity.
- And finally, in the initial project phase, evaluating data quality and data truth.
Another hurdle was Brexit, which necessitated an acceleration of the project. We addressed this challenge by changing our research methods and increasing personnel.
Approach
The university chose HighPots because we could provide proof of performance and successful completion of similar projects, e.g., for the Lab for Information and Decision Systems located at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
Using combined data mining and data analytics methods, we identified relevant data sources together with the scientists, which the university had painstakingly compiled over decades through elaborate scanning processes.
Many religions were excluded because they were not drastically different from each other, were too close in time or geography, or because the data volumes were insufficient.
Ultimately, out of over 400 religions, 30 remained. The situation was similar for societies. In the end, 414 societies remained out of over 4,000. This is because the prerequisite for the analysis is that complex civilizations can also develop from simple societies; for this, a society must exist for many hundreds of years.
- Analyzing millions of raw data records of different formats from 414 societies, 30 religions over a period of 10,000 years.
- Determining the uniqueness of religion according to the definitions of historians and anthropologists.
- Recognizing when a “simple” society transforms into a complex and “civilized” society, despite determining specific parameters including tolerance values.
- Determining which criteria play a role for strong/weak dependencies and to what extent a religion can even influence societal complexity.
- And finally, in the initial project phase, evaluating data quality and data truth.
Another hurdle was Brexit, which necessitated an acceleration of the project. We addressed this challenge by changing our research methods and increasing personnel.
Results
After the analysis was completed, the following results emerged:
- The majority of all societies created powerful gods beyond a certain level of complexity.
- The first deities and supernatural entities responsible for ethics and morality emerged around 2850 BC.
- Complex social relationships grew 5x faster in societies without religion than in societies with religion.
Religions supported the formation of civilizations, especially in their early stages when societies were emerging. Beyond a certain point, a level of achieved civilization (complexity level), religions hinder further civilizational development, making it difficult for these societies to progress further.
It is assumed that the rules of religions (e.g., the “10 Commandments” in Christianity) enable the formation of a society in the first place, but later in societal development, they slow down enlightenment.
Tibor Navracsics
The complete data is now publicly available in the Seshat Databank.
The full results were published in Nature.
Conclusion
- From the results, we can learn that complex societies can also develop when humans are left to their own devices with their egoistic behavior – that is, without the knowledge of a moral, supernatural authority.
- However, this is rarely the case; the development of many complex societies shows a belief in gods or supernatural entities. This may be psychologically explainable. Most readers know the feeling when they have successfully outsmarted someone else legally. At first, there is joy, but soon after, a bad conscience sets in. This bad conscience comes from the possibility that there might be a supernatural entity (e.g., Karma) that cannot be tricked; an entity that can punish during life or after death.